Why is Trump targeting Brazil - and will it backfire for Bolsonaro?

July 10, 2025

President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 50% on Brazil, accusing the country of attacking US tech companies and conducting a "witch hunt" against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. This action has severely strained US-Brazil relations, following recent political tensions between Trump and current Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula responded by asserting Brazil's sovereignty, while his government promised to reciprocate with equal tariffs on American products.

Who is affected

Brazilian exporters, particularly in sectors like oranges, coffee, and beef
Brazilian consumers who may face higher prices on American products if reciprocal tariffs are implemented
Bolsonaro supporters and Brazil's right-wing political movement
Agribusiness sectors aligned with Bolsonaro's political base
Brazilian citizens broadly affected by potential economic consequences
US consumers who may pay more for Brazilian imports
Brazilian politicians across the political spectrum responding to the international tension

What action is being taken

Trump is pledging to impose tariffs on Brazil at rates as high as 50%
Lula's government is promising to reciprocate with equal tariffs on American products
Brazilian authorities and businesses are calculating the potential economic impact of the tariffs
Bolsonaro supporters are using the tariff threats as political leverage against Lula
Brazilian politicians across the political spectrum are responding with nationalist rhetoric
Lula and the Brazilian left-wing are emphasizing sovereignty in their responses

Why it matters

The US is Brazil's second most important trade partner after China
The tariffs could significantly impact Brazil's economy, particularly sectors closely aligned with Bolsonaro's political base
Trump's action represents an unprecedented level of foreign intervention in Brazilian domestic politics
The situation could impact Brazil's 2026 presidential election by influencing public opinion about right-wing candidates associated with Trump
The tariff threat serves as an explicit endorsement for Bolsonaro, who wants to run for president again despite being banned until 2030
The confrontation could potentially provide a political boost for Lula, who has been struggling with falling popularity

What's next

No explicit next steps stated in the article

Read full article from source: BBC